It seems that we are stuck in an architectural downturn with declining billings each month going back to July of 2023. Unemployment is at 4%, which isn't terrible. Most economists agree that we are not in a recession and the stock market continues to hit all-time highs.
So, are architects the canary in the coal mine? Is a true recession around the corner?
Nobody knows. The stock market is not the economy and there have been architectural downturns without recessions. All we can do is continue to push through and try to keep our heads high. Like all of the generations of architects before us, we will survive this downturn.
To help us better understand where we stand, Archinect created a two-part series on the state of the architecture economy. Part 1 was their survey of business conditions. Part 2 covers the major factors contributing to the downturn.
I don't think you'll find any big surprises in that series, but it may be worth a read to see if you have the same experiences as others.
Stay strong.
May Billings: All Regions and Sectors Continue to Be Down
May's Billings Index came in at 42.4, which is significantly lower than April and represents yet another month of declining billings at architecture firms. That is the lowest number we have seen in this cycle.
May inquiries were still above 50, but there was a decline compared to the past six months. New design contracts also fell sharply in May.
The commentary this month discusses the softening employment numbers in architecture firms. In addition, the report looks at mega-projects with construction costs above $1 billion. Only 6% of firms have experience working on such large projects.
May: 42.4, April: 48.3, March: 43.6, February: 49.5, January: 46.2, December: 45.4
ABI May 2024: Business conditions at architecture firms continue to soften
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More Public Projects Going CMAR
Public projects have traditionally been contracted using the Design-Bid-Build delivery method, but more jurisdictions are allowing for Construction Manager at Risk delivery to help speed up delivery on complex projects. Given how even simple buildings now have complicated systems, I assume this will continue.
Why CMAR is on the rise for public construction projects
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Networking
I am terrible at networking. Small talk with friends is easy. Small talk with strangers is hard since I'm pretty sure neither of us wants to be chatting at a networking event after a long day at work. Or at least that's what my pessimistic mind wants me to believe.
Bob and Andrew get into how to work a room on their recent Life of an Architect Podcast. It is a good episode if you dislike networking like me. You need to network if you want to advance your career.
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AEC Social Media Stars
The Guardian reports on a number of construction workers who have become social media stars. Admittedly, excavator tricks are much more entertaining than Revit tricks, but it is fair to say that you may have to deal with an employee who is popular on social media - or you may even have your own presence.
There are plenty of architects on Real Estate Twitter and many more on YouTube. It is worth considering the stance your firm will take should an employee gain internet notoriety. Admittedly, I have always been concerned about how my employers would think about Archtoolbox. Thus far, it hasn't been a problem, but I have no intention or desire to go viral so I don't make that kind of content.
My bricklayer’s gone viral! Why construction workers are the new social media stars
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On Collaboration and Ownership of Ideas
This short Op-Ed in The Architect's Newspaper discusses how many projects are collaborations among multiple design firms with specific expertise. As mentioned earlier, our buildings are so much more complex than in the past so smaller firms may not have the horsepower to execute construction documents, but they can contribute to projects in ways that larger firms cannot. Collaboration like this can make projects better.
Contemporary design can complicate authorship. Who owns ideas?
